New Delhi: Today, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to unveil its latest monetary policy decision, the result of a three-day review by the Monetary Policy Committee. The announcement will be made by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, arriving at a pivotal moment: inflation is gradually cooling, economic growth is gaining momentum, the rupee has slid past the 90-per-dollar mark, and global tensions continue to cast a shadow. How the RBI responds in this backdrop could significantly shape the outlook for borrowers, investors, and everyone keeping an eye on India’s financial pulse.
Repo Rate Cuts and What’s Next for Growth
The central bank has already trimmed the repo rate by 100 basis points this year in three rounds since February, following a steady drop in consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Last month, Governor Sanjay Malhotra signaled that there was “room for further cuts.” India continues to aim for a retail inflation rate of 4 per cent, with a buffer of 2 per cent on either side. Meanwhile, after a stronger-than-expected first half of the fiscal year, the RBI is likely to raise its economic growth forecast just as it did in October when it bumped up its FY26 GDP projection from 6.5 per cent to 6.8 per cent.
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Experts Split on Rate Move Ahead of Policy Outcome
Economists and market analysts believe the RBI MPC’s decision on the repo rate could go either way.
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, noted that monetary policy is forward-looking, and inflation in Q4-FY26 and FY27 is expected to stay in the “4 per cent plus” range. This, he said, would result in a real repo rate of “1-1.5 per cent,” suggesting that the current policy rate is already at a reasonable level. “Under these conditions we do not think that there should be any change in the policy rate,” he added.
A recent SBI report says that earlier expectations of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the RBI have now weakened. After looking closely at the strong Q2 GDP growth and current economic trends, the report suggests that the RBI is more likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the December policy meeting. SBI also states that the RBI may go for “calibrated easing” through liquidity tools to help bring bond yields down, even while maintaining a neutral stance.
RBI MPC Meeting Schedule: When and Where to Watch Live
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee met from December 3 to December 5 to review the current policy stance. Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the policy outcome today at 10 a.m., followed by a press briefing at 12 p.m.
The Governor’s speech will be streamed live on the RBI’s official YouTube channel. Viewers can also follow real-time updates on the central bank’s X (formerly Twitter) handle and its official website.
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